Sunday, March 9, 2014

Winter 2013/2014 in Middlesex County

To what extent does weather have an effect on winter sales activity? When does the spring market start? Some years if the winter is mild it seems like buyers start coming out of the woodwork in late January / February.

In New Jersey, this year's winter has been exceptionally harsh with very cold temperatures, a polar vortex and almost continuous snow cover. 

We took a look at sales activity and studied the number of properties where contracts to buy were signed. 

The results were eye opening. 

From 12/1/2013 to 2/28/2014 the Middlesex Multiple Listing Service reported 712 properties received offers to purchase. 

Comparing that to the same time period a year earlier, the figure was 845. 

This represents a 16% decline in the number of properties purchased. 

What's different? The weather for sure, and slightly higher mortgage rates. Its next to impossible to tell to what degree each had an influence on the decline but anecdotaly, it certainly seems that the temperatures have played a major role.

If its weather related, one would expect pent up demand to show itself in the form of an increase in the number of contracts signed in spring months vs. the same time period next year. 

The dark side of tax abatements in Newark and Elizabeth

Both Newark and Elizabeth have tax abatement programs with the goal of spurring development in blighted areas. This is a worthy goal and sounds like an enormous benefit to buyers of tax abated properties.

But are there unintended consequences? And who pays the ultimate costs?

First a quick look at how a typical tax abatement is structured. In Elizabeth, for example, properties eligible for tax abatements are 1-2 unit properties that are to be owner occupied. The most common iteration of this is a 2 family home with 3 levels; a lower level garage and finished basement with 2 stacked units on the 2nd and 3rd floors, each with 3 bedrooms and two baths. The abatement policy gives the recipient an advantage, taxing the property at 2% of the building construction cost plus the assessed value of the land. Without going into too much detail, on a typical 2 unit property this results in a substantial discount in the annual taxes levied on a newly built home. This can translate to a monthly benefit to the owner of up to $400 per month.

How does this impact value? Well first one needs to take a look at the profile of a typical buyer for a property such as this. A typical bona fide buyer would be a salaried worker wishing to purchase a property where rental income can be used to offset monthly payment costs, allowing a buyer who may not be able to afford a single family residence with relatively low income to live in a newly built property. The typical buyer of a property like this rarely brings more than 5% as a downpayment for purchase, more likely 3%.

A buyer such as this is sold a property based on the monthly out of pocket cost rather than the actual price of the property.

Lets look at a borrower example:

Total income $50,000 per year, with a $400/month car payment and $250/month revolving payments. The borrower will receive $1,200 per month in rental for one of the units. Taxes are unabated and $12,000 per year. According to Bankrate.com's housing calculator, this borrower can afford a mortgage on a property worth up to $180,000.

Now let's run the simulator for the same borrower but abate the taxes to $6,000 per year. This same borrower can now afford to buy a home worth $280,000.

The incentives caused by tax abatements, as noted in this example, will tend to encourage a credit worthy borrower with moderate income to over-buy housing relative to what they can afford (in this example to the tune of $100,000).

Now all is well and good for the first 5 years, but what happens in year 6? The borrower is hit suddenly with a dramatic increase in monthly payments that they can no longer afford. This has a drastic effect on the neighborhoods where revitalization occurred. These gleaming new 2 unit properties which were the hope of renewal for blighted communities begin to foreclose in significant numbers. The lack of tax abatements set a new price level based on borrower affordability so that a seller can not sell their property at abatement levels.

This hurts everyone.